Analisis Spasial dan Temporal Perubahan Luas Gletser Puncak Jaya Menggunakan Citra Sentinel-2 untuk Prediksi Kepunahan Gletser
Authors
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Muhammad Zaidan Nafis
Institut Teknologi Bandung
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Amira Khairunissa
Institut Teknologi Bandung
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Muhammad Rizky Perdana
Institut Teknologi Bandung
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Eka Djunarsjah
Institut Teknologi Bandung
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62712/juktisi.v4i2.429Keywords:
Gletser Tropis, Puncak Jaya, NDSI, Regresi Linear, Regresi EksponensialAbstract
Perubahan iklim global menyebabkan penyusutan gletser tropis yang signifikan, menjadikan Puncak Jaya, gunung tertinggi di Oseania, sebagai indikator kritis. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perubahan luas Gletser Puncak Jaya dari tahun 2017 hingga 2024 menggunakan citra Sentinel-2 dan Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), serta memproyeksikan waktu kepunahannya. Metodologi melibatkan akuisisi citra Sentinel-2 dengan minimal tutupan awan, perhitungan NDSI untuk delineasi luas gletser, dan prediksi menggunakan model regresi linier serta eksponensial. Hasil menunjukkan penyusutan luas gletser yang drastis dan konsisten, kehilangan sekitar 69.5% dari luas awalnya (47.67 hektar pada 2017 menjadi 14.51 hektar pada 2024). Gletser utara mengalami fragmentasi, sementara gletser selatan hampir menghilang. Penurunan pesat tercatat pada periode 2018-2019 (terkait El Niño) dan 2021-2022 (terkait La Niña yang kompleks). Prediksi regresi linier (skenario pesimis) menunjukkan kepunahan pada 22 April 2026. Sementara itu, regresi eksponensial (skenario optimis, luas <1 hektar) memprediksi kepunahan pada 6 Oktober 2044. Rentang waktu ini menggarisbawahi keniscayaan kepunahan gletser Puncak Jaya dalam beberapa dekade mendatang, menekankan urgensi mitigasi perubahan iklim.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Zaidan Nafis, Amira Khairunissa, Muhammad Rizky Perdana, Eka Djunarsjah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
